What are the potential poverty effects of revoking the 2021 Thrifty Food Plan adjustment to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)?

Recent federal budget discussions indicate significant cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are under consideration this year as part of the legislative reconciliation effort currently underway in Congress. One proposal could revoke the 2021 update to the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) that increased the value of SNAP benefits. The TFP represents the monthly cost of food at home for families on a constrained budget. As part of the 2018 Farm Bill, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated the TFP in 2021 (the methodology of which had not been updated prior since 2006). Because the USDA sets maximum SNAP benefit levels based on the TFP, the 2021 update to the TFP led to a 21% increase in maximum SNAP benefit levels and varying increases in SNAP for all recipients. Researchers have previously explored the impact of the 2021 TFP adjustment on SNAP, revealing that average benefit increases corresponded with reductions in poverty. Here, we examine the impact that revoking the TFP adjustment to SNAP, and the resulting reduction in SNAP benefits, would have on poverty nationally and by state. 

Key Findings

• Revoking the 2021 TFP adjustment to SNAP benefits would cut maximum monthly SNAP benefits and reduce SNAP benefits for all recipients.  
   
• Over 2.1 million more people could end up in poverty if the 2021 TFP adjustment to SNAP is revoked, increasing overall poverty by almost 6%. This includes almost 855,000 more children in poverty, increasing overall child poverty by 10%.
   
• This policy change would see the greatest rise in poverty among SNAP recipients themselves, who already experience poverty at high rates and who could see their poverty rates increase by 11%. Poverty among children who receive SNAP could rise by over 13% and poverty among seniors who receive SNAP could rise by 10%.
   
• Rural residents could see greater increases in poverty than urban residents. The five states with the largest relative increases in poverty under this policy change include: Iowa, West Virginia, Ohio, Washington, and Mississippi.

Suggested Citation:

Koutavas, Anastasia, Sophie Collyer, and Megan Curran. 2025. What are the potential poverty effects of revoking the 2021 Thrifty Food Plan adjustment to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)? Poverty and Social Policy Brief, vol. 9, no. 4. New York: Center on Poverty and Social Policy, Columbia University.

Published on May 5, 2025