What Predicts Disconnection at Age 22, and What Experiences are Protective?: Evidence from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study

The Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS) has been following a large and diverse sample of children born in 20 large US cities since their births in 1998 to 2000. The children—now young adults—were re-interviewed between October 2020 and January 2024, at age 22, responding to questions about their income, earnings, living arrangements, employment, education, family, financial support, health, identity, and more. These children turned 22 during the COVID-19 pandemic. As youth in the FFCWS cohort transition into young adulthood, these interviews provide an opportunity to understand how today’s young adults are faring.

This brief focuses on risk and protective factors for disconnection—being neither enrolled in school/training nor employed—an important outcome for young adults. We take advantage of the longitudinal data to shed light on experiences during childhood and adolescence that predict disconnection at age 22 as well as factors that promote connection to education and/or employment. Results are representative of young adults born in large cities in the United States. This brief is part of a series on young adults’ wellbeing at age 22.

Key Findings

• Young adults who are disconnected at age 22 already experience risk factors for disconnection during childhood and adolescence, including:
  • In elementary school, they are behind in vocabulary skills, more likely to report being picked on by peers, and are more likely to have been absent from school, held back, suspended, or expelled.
  • In high school, they are less likely to report feeling connected to school, more likely to report being bullied, and are more likely to have failed a class, skipped school, been held back, suspended, or expelled.
  • They are also more likely to have been involved with the juvenile justice system.
     
• There are also some factors and experiences that are protective. Youth who are connected to education and/or employment at age 22 are more likely to have:
  • Attended preschool and have parents with high levels of education themselves.
  • Mothers who are employed when they are in elementary and high school.
  • Participated in extracurricular activities at age 9 and 15 and more likely to work during high school.   
     
• These findings suggest that it should be possible to identify children who are at risk of young adult disconnection earlier in childhood. The findings also point to experiences that could potentially be protective against disconnection.

The study is a joint effort by Princeton University’s Bendheim-Thoman Center for Research on Child and Family Wellbeing and the Columbia Population Research Center.

The Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study is a long-running collaborative birth cohort study, which has followed a large and diverse sample of children since their births in 1998 to 2000. The children were born in 20 large cities but now reside all over the United States. When weighted, the study provides data that is nationally representative of young adults born in large cities and as such is the only nationally representative sample of a contemporary cohort of young adults followed longitudinally since birth.

Suggested Citation

Dickerson, Tia, Hye-Min Jung, and Jane Waldfogel. 2026. What predicts disconnection at age 22, and what experiences are protective? Evidence from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study. Princeton, NJ: The Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study.

Published on February 27, 2026