New Estimates of the Number of United States Citizen and Legal Permanent Resident Children Who May Lose Eligibility for the Child Tax Credit

This fact sheet provides new estimates of the number of American citizen and legal permanent resident children who could lose eligibility for the federal Child Tax Credit if proposals currently considered in debates about tax policy reform in the United States were implemented. Currently, children with Social Security Numbers (SSNs), the vast majority of whom are American citizens or legal permanent residents, are eligible for the Child Tax Credit, even if their parents lack an SSN. But legislators working on reforms and extensions to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) have proposed restricting eligibility by requiring these children’s parents or guardians to have an SSN as well. If enacted, such changes to the law would take away eligibility from millions of citizen and legal permanent resident children in the United States. This fact sheet provides estimates of the size of the child population at risk of losing eligibility for the Child Tax Credit. 

This is a collaboration of the Center for Migration Studies, Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia University, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, and Boston University Institute for Equity in Child Opportunity & Healthy Development.

Key Findings

• We estimate that over 4.5 million citizen and legal permanent resident children with SSNs would become ineligible for the CTC under a policy change that would prohibit parents without SSNs from claiming the credit for their children on their taxes, even if the children have an SSN.
• The five states with the greatest estimated number of children who would be affected by such a policy change in CTC eligibility are: California (estimated population of affected children: 910,000), Texas (875,000), Florida (247,000), New York (226,000), and Illinois (196,000).
• The ten congressional districts with the greatest estimated number of children who would be affected by the same policy change. These districts are found in Texas, Arizona, and California.

Suggested Citation:

Lisiecki, Matthew, Danielle Wilson, Dolores Acevedo-Garcia, Sophie Collyer, Megan Curran, Joe Hughes, Emma Sifre, and Christopher Wimer. 2025. New estimates of the number of United States citizen and legal permanent resident children who may lose eligibility for the Child Tax Credit. New York: Center for Migration Studies.

Published on April 24, 2025