Children Left Behind by the H.R.1 Child Tax Credit

Children Left Behind by the H.R.1 Child Tax Credit

The Child Tax Credit provides families in the United States with up to $2,000 per child to help them with the  costs of raising children. But two central elements of the credit’s design—its refundability structure and earnings requirement—lead families to need a certain level of income to qualify for the full $2,000 per child credit. These two elements leave low- and moderate-income families less likely to qualify fully for the credit. As a result, millions of children in low- and moderate-income families are currently ineligible for the full credit of $2,000 per child, or are “left behind,” because their family income is not high enough for them to qualify fully. In 2023, roughly 17 million children—or 1 in 4 children in the United States—were left behind according to this definition. Here, we examine how the number of children ineligible for the full Child Tax Credit could change under the recent budget reconciliation bill passed by the US House of Representatives in late May 2025 (H.R.1, 119th Congress). H.R.1 increases the maximum Child Tax Credit from $2,000 to $2,500 per child, but makes no changes to the other central elements of the credit that tie the credit amount that a family receives to its income level.

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Key Findings

  • In the House-passed reconciliation bill (H.R.1), 1 in 3 children (33%) under age 17 (representing 22 million children) would be ineligible for the full Child Tax Credit because their family income is not high enough to qualify fully. This includes roughly five million additional children in moderate-income families who become newly ineligible for the full Child Tax Credit under H.R.1.

  • In 2025, a two-parent family with two children would need a minimum of $48,000 in income to be eligible for the full credit under H.R.1.

  • Disproportionately ineligible for the full credit under H.R.1 are: 54% of American Indian or Alaska Native children; 51% of Black children; 44% of Latino children; 65% of children with a female single parent; 34% of children under age six, 43% of children in large families; and 40% of children in rural areas.

  • Under H.R.1, there would be 18 states—the majority of which are located in the south— where more than 1 in 3 children would be ineligible for the full Child Tax Credit. The states with the greatest share of children ineligible for the full credit under H.R.1 include Mississippi (45%), New Mexico (44%), and Louisiana (43%). 

Research also featured in the New York Times: Tax credit increase would exclude millions of low-income children, study finds

Suggested Citation:

Collyer, Sophie, Christopher Yera, Megan Curran, David Harris, and Christopher Wimer. 2025. Children left behind by the H.R.1 Child Tax Credit. Poverty and Social Policy Brief, vol. 9, no. 5. New York: Center on Poverty and Social Policy, Columbia University.

Published on June 5, 2025

Related: Congressional District data