Children Left Behind by the H.R.1 “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Child Tax Credit

This analysis reflects the final version of H.R.1, as signed into law. It updates our original analysis of the earlier version of H.R.1 passed by the U.S. House of Representatives.

The federal Child Tax Credit aims to help families manage the costs of raising children. However, central elements of the credit’s design lead families to need a certain level of income to qualify for the full credit. As a result, roughly 17 million children in low- and moderate-income families were ineligible for the full Child Tax Credit in 2023, or were “left behind,” because their family income was not high enough for them to qualify for the full credit. In July 2025, Congress passed a large budget reconciliation bill, H.R.1, also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), that included changes to the federal Child Tax Credit. In a prior analysis, we examined the earlier version of H.R.1, as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in May 2025.

The final legislation, amended by the U.S. Senate, increases the maximum Child Tax Credit to $2,200 per child while leaving untouched the central elements of the credit that tie a family’s credit amount to their income level. This brief updates our original analysis by identifying the minimum family income needed to access the full Child Tax Credit under the final version of H.R.1 (OBBBA), and the estimated number and share of children left behind by the new credit nationally, by state, by congressional district, and across different population groups. 

Key Findings

• We estimate that in 2025, more than 1 in 4 children (28%) under age 17 will be ineligible for the full Child Tax Credit under OBBBA because their family income is not high enough to qualify. 
   
• This represents 19 million children left behind: 17 million children previously ineligible for the full credit who see no gains under OBBBA and remain ineligible for the full credit plus roughly two million children in moderate-income families newly ineligible for the full credit.
   
• In 2025, a two-parent family with two children will need a minimum of $41,500 in income to be eligible for the full credit under OBBBA.
   
• Disproportionately ineligible for the full credit under OBBBA will be: 48% of American Indian or Alaska Native children; 45% of Black children; 39% of Latino children; 60% of children with a female single parent; 30% of children under age six; 36% of children in large families; and 35% of children in rural areas.
   
• In 2025, we estimate that there will be 14 states—most located in the South—where more than 30% of children will be ineligible for the full Child Tax Credit outlined in OBBBA because their family income is not high enough to qualify fully, including Mississippi (45%), New Mexico (44%), and Louisiana (43%). There will also be 163 congressional districts where more than 30% of children are ineligible for the full credit for this reason.

Suggested Citation:

Collyer, Sophie, Christopher Yera, Megan Curran, David Harris, and Christopher Wimer. 2025. Children left behind by the H.R.1 OBBBA Child Tax Credit. Poverty and Social Policy Brief, vol. 9, no. 5. New York: Center on Poverty and Social Policy, Columbia University.

Published on August 06, 2025

Analysis of earlier version of H.R.1 passed by U.S. House of Representatives in May 2025

Collyer, Sophie, Christopher Yera, Megan Curran, David Harris, and Christopher Wimer. 2025. Children left behind by the H.R.1 Child Tax Credit. Poverty and Social Policy Brief, vol. 9, no. 5. New York: Center on Poverty and Social Policy, Columbia University. Published on June 5, 2025

Center on Poverty and Social Policy. 2025. Children left behind by the Child Tax Credit by H.R.1: By congressional district. New York: Center on Poverty and Social Policy, Columbia University. Published on June 11, 2025

Research also featured in the New York Times: Tax credit increase would exclude millions of low-income children, study finds. Published on June 5, 2025