What Would 2022 Child Poverty Rates Have Looked Like if an Expanded Child Tax Credit Had Still Been in Place?
In September 2023, the Census Bureau released data on the poverty rate in 2022. Compared to the historic low of 5.2% in 2021, the child poverty rate more than doubled, rising to 12.4%. The sharp spike in child poverty from 2021 to 2022 represents the largest year-over-year increase in the Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate on record. The historic low in the child poverty rate in 2021 was largely the result of a major one-year expansion to the federal Child Tax Credit in the American Rescue Plan. The increase in child poverty in 2022, in turn, is largely the result of the expanded Child Tax Credit’s expiration. This alarming rise in child poverty raises the question: what would child poverty rates have been if the 2021 temporary expansion of the Child Tax Credit had continued into 2022? To answer this question, we model an expanded Child Tax Credit – based on the increased credit amounts and expanded eligibility of the 2021 expansion – in the 2022 data.
Key Findings
From 2021 to 2022, SPM child poverty rates more than doubled from the historic low of 5.2% to 12.4%, resulting in 5.2 million more children living below the poverty line.
The sharp spike in child poverty from 2021 to 2022 is the largest year-over-year increase in the child poverty rate on record.
Had the 2021 expanded-Child Tax Credit still been in effect in 2022, the child poverty rate would have been 8.1%, preserving much of the historic decline in child poverty of 2021.
On its own, an expanded Child Tax Credit could have kept over 5 million children from poverty and cut the 2022 SPM child poverty rate by 47%.
Suggested Citation:
Koutavas, Anastasia, Christopher Yera, Sophie Collyer, Megan Curran, David Harris, and Christopher Wimer. 2023. “What Would 2022 Child Poverty Rates Have Looked Like if an Expanded Child Tax Credit Had Still Been in Place?” Poverty and Social Policy Brief, Vol. 7, No. 3. Access at: www.povertycenter.columbia.edu/publication/2023/what-2022-child-poverty-rates-would-have-looked-like