Forecasting poverty during a crisis

In 2020, we established a novel method of forecasting poverty using the Supplemental Poverty Measure, with a goal of providing projections of poverty rates throughout the COVID-19 crisis. Using a monthly framework, we are able to understand poverty trends in the context of the considerable economic volatility introduced by the crisis and the federal policy response. As official poverty rates are reported on an annual basis and with a considerable lag, our forecasting data provides policymakers with a real-time poverty data tool. As we continue to track the evolution of the crisis and the impact of policy, we will update our results live here.